By Delphi

Kazuo Misaki (-250, Bodog) vs Kazuhiro Nakamura (+215, BetCRIS)

There is a bit of a back story to this match that could have an influence on this fight.  So, it needs to be addressed.  First, this was supposed to be a #1 contender fight in the middleweight division.  It no longer is, at least for Misaki it’s not.  If Nakamura wins, he will have the chance to fight Jorge Santiago for the belt in the future.  Secondly, Misaki is not making any money for this fight.  His entire purse is being given to charity.  Finally, Misaki will be suspended from fighting for an indefinite period after August 2^nd. Therefore, this may be his last time in the ring for a while. 

All of this stems from an altercation that Misaki had with a police officer.  He was pulled over for speaking on his mobile phone, and for some reason, he decided to make a run for it.  He failed to do so, but he did end up hitting the officer’s car in the process.  Therefore, he is not getting paid and he will be unable to fight for a while after this match.  I have a feeling that this will make Misaki a very dangerous opponent.

Since all of the drama of this fight is on Misaki’s head, his fighting analysis is the best place to start.  Misaki is a former judoka and Pride welterweight GP champion.  He has had some good runs in Pride and Pancrase with notable wins over Denis Kang, Joe Riggs, Dan Henderson, and Phil Baroni.  He also has notable losses to Dan Henderson, Paulo Fihlo, Nate Marquardt, and Frank Trigg.  He is currently sporting a 21-9 record.

Misaki may have a judo background, but he hasn’t taken a fight down in a little while.  He didn’t even shoot once in his last 3 fights.  The trend will probably continue for this fight.  His standup is very elusive.  He likes to dart in and land a 1-3 punch combination and then get back out.  These combinations are well diversified, with hard body shots, and an intelligent mix of jabs, crosses, and hooks.  He isn’t a one dimensional charge-forward-and-throw-haymakers kind of striker, and that is where his true edge comes from.

On the other side of the ring, you have Nakamura.  He was a regular over in Pride and then went to the UFC after Prides demise.  He went 0-2 in the UFC and has now returned to Japan to fight in Sengoku.  Since coming back, he has gone 2-1.  Nakamura has notable wins over Evangelista Santos and Kevin Randleman. He has notable losses to Little Nog (twice), Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, Josh Barnett, Mauricio Rua, Lyoto Machida, and Sokoudjou.  Those last two occurred during his run in the UFC.  He is currently 13-9.

Nakamura has a similar striking style to Misaki, however, it is fairly rudimentary and lacks the combinations that Misaki throws.  He usually just pops in with the left jab and then moves out.  Every once in a while he will push forward with straight shots, but he especially likes his left jabs.  If he gets frustrated, he will start jumping in with knees and wild kicks.

While Nakamura is also a former judoka, like Misaki, he will actually use his judo and work for takedowns. That is the one area where he may give Misaki problems.  Nakamura also has better GnP than Misaki’s ground defense, and if he can get the fight to the ground, he has a real chance of winning.  Standing up, Misaki has the upper hand with an edge in boxing, hand speed, and elusiveness.

To factor in the problems that Misaki has had outside the ring, I have the feeling that he is going be fighting very hard.  There is no money on the line, but there is a matter of honor.  Japan is one of those countries where honor is taken very seriously, and with Misaki potentially not fighting for a while, he will pull out all the stops in this fight.

One additional point to look at is how both these guys faired in their last fight.  Both of them lost to Jorge Santiago.  Misaki looked a lot better during that bout, and lasted past round 3.  He was eventually put away via a RNC.  Nakamura was put away in round 3 by TKO.  Jorge put him down with a right cross and then finished him off on the ground.  Misaki took out Joe Riggs at Strikeforce with a hard right cross, which is something to consider.

Final Prediction:  Misaki was a little higher than expected when the lines came out.  I was thinking closer to -185, which makes me pause.  -250 seems too high, therefore, I would stay away from it.  There may be a good opportunity for an underdog bet on Nakamura at +215, but it is risky.  His most likely path to victory will be to get Misaki to the ground and get the TKO or decision.  I would put his chances of doing that at around 35-40%.  Don’t throw down more than .5 units to win 1.075 units.

Kazuyuki Fujita (+110, Sportsbook) vs Blagoy Alexandre Ivanov (-120, BetCRIS)

This is Ivanov’s first professional MMA fight.  His claim to fame, thus far, was his defeat of Fedor Emelianenko in Sambo in November of last year.  The reports are that the big question mark with Ivanov is his standup.  Nobody is sure how well he will do taking a punch.  That being said, Sambo is a very good base to have in MMA, and if he gets a hold of Fujita, he should be able to win the fight.  In addition, there is striking in the Sambo tournaments, so it’s not like he is a wrestler that has never been hit before. 

Kazujuki Fujita is a well seasoned veteran of the sport.  He has wins over Bob Sapp, Gilbert Yvel, and Ken Shamrock.  He has losses to the likes of Mark Coleman, Mirko Cro Cop (twice), Fedor Emelianenko, Wanderlei Silva, and Jeff Monson.  He does have some KO’s on his record, but he is much more adept at getting the takedown and winning on the ground.  The problem is that he will most likely be outmatched by Ivanov on the ground.   Therefore, his optimal path to victory will be with his striking.  That being said, most of his standup victories have come from some questionable competitors like Josh Thompson, who were willing to stand in front of him and trade shots. 

Final Prediction: Go with Ivanov at -120 for 1.2 units to win 1.  The more footage I watch, the less impressed I am with Fujita.  In addition, Ivanov looks great in his Sambo matches and will have the advantage of youth and speed.

Clay French (+200, BetUS) vs Eiji Mitsuoka (-215, BetCRIS)

Clay French has the better wrestling and probably standup.  However, he has a weakness against high-level BJJ guys.  Eiji Mitsuoka is a high-level BJJ guy with descent standup.  There isn’t much edge here in the lines.

Final Prediction:  Eiji Mitsuoka will most likely win this via submission, but since the lines are pretty accurate, no action to be taken.

Choi Mu Bae (+235, Bodog) vs Yoshihiro Nakao (-255, BetCRIS)

Choi is a Greco-Roman bronze medalist who is coming off a TKO of Ed Herman.  Yoshihiro Nakao is best known for his infamous kiss of Heath Herring and following knockout.  He is also a strong wrestler that prefers to get the fight on the ground.  There is a good chance here that Choi will be able to nullify Nakao’s wrestling and get him down instead.  If they both stand and strike, it is a tossup.

Final Prediction: Choi Mu Bae is a very live underdog at +235.  So risk .5 units to win 1.175 units.

Koji Ando (+300, Bodog) vs Ikuo Usudo (-350, BetUS)

These are both very green guys that are undefeated.  Usudo is 4-0 with the most exposure and is very strong.  Ando is 2-0 and is good on the ground.  With so little information, this fight isn’t worth betting on for now.

Final Prediction:  Usudo has KOed a guy with a suplex, which is just plain badass, so I have to lean his way.  However, with so little information, it’s not worth making a bet.

Toru Harai(-185, Sportsbook) vs Shigeki Osawa (+160, Bodog)

This is another fight with very little information available.  Osawa is 2-0, all via decision.  Harai is 6-2 and has had all of his fights in DEEP.  With so little info and footage on these guys, it’s best to just let this one go by.

Final Prediction:  No action.

See Part 1 of Sengoku 9 Betting Odds and Analysis