By Delphi 

Satoru Kitaoka (-400, BetCRIS) vs Mizuto Hirota (+350, BetUS) 

Satoru Kitaoka is a world class BJJ practitioner.  He is the current BJJ and No-Gi Open Champion in the 79.7 KG and absolute divisions in Japan, and he recently won the Sengoku lightweight tournament.  He originally fought at welterweight in Pancrase, but dropped down to lightweight to fight in Sengoku.  After the lightweight GP, he beat Takanori Gomi for the lightweight championship and this will be his first title defense.  He is 25-8. 

Satoru has some very good wrestling with amazingly quick takedowns.  Most often, he will shoot in and pull guard, just to get the fight to the ground.  From there, his forte his leg attacks, especially heel hooks and ankle locks.  Standing up, he is less than impressive, but his lack of striking prowess is fairly easily covered up by his threat of takedowns and lightness on his feet.  Of his 25 wins, 14 have been by submission, the rest were decisions.  Out of his 8 losses, 7 were by decision and only 1 by KO.

The challenger, Mizuto Hirota, is a heavy handed striker out of the Gutsman Shooto Dojo.  He has mainly fought with Shooto and has an 11-3 record.  63% of his wins have been by KO or TKO and none by submission.  In addition, all of his loses have been via decision.  He has some good hand speed and a descent sprawl. 

This is a classic striker vs grappler match up.  Hirota is going to want to keep this on the feet and let his hands fly.  Satoru will want to get this to the ground and sink in one of his heel hooks.  Thus far, Satoru has shown an uncanny ability to avoid damage standing up and that he has the wrestling ability to get fights to the ground.  Therefore, it is unlikely that Hirota will be able to keep this fight standing.  Look for Saturo to impose his will in this fight and get the victory. 

Final Prediction:  Satoru Kitaoka should take this, but I would stay away from it since the line is above my -400 rule.

Dan Hornbuckle (+350, BetUS) vs Akihiro Gono (-355, BetCRIS) 

Akihiro Gono is a very exciting Japanese fighter that just left the UFC after back-to-back losses to Jon Fitch and Dan Hardy.  He has been in the fight game since 1994 and has notable wins over Gegard Mousasi, Ivan Salaverry, and Tamden McCrory.  He also has notable losses to Mauricio Rua, Dan Henderson, and Matt Hughes.  He is currently 29-14 and is on a two fight losing streak. 

As of late, Gono seems to have lost a step or two.  He has always had some very crazy unorthodox striking, and that didn’t help him at all in the UFC.  His most recent fight against Jon Fitch was just painful to watch as he was unable to mount any kind of offense the whole fight.  He does have some good submission skills and has been known to pull out submissions in very strange positions. 

Now Dan Hornbuckle is a lot like Gono, just younger.  He has some very crazy striking, but it is borderline sloppy.  He is listed as being 17-2, however, most of his fights have been on fairly small cards in Indiana.  I have a feeling that most of his success came from being a big fish in a small pond.  Dan does have some submission skills, but it is unlikely he will be able to hang with Gono on the ground.  Dan’s only really strength is a strong wrestling base with powerful takedowns, and that is one area where Gono has had problems in the past. 

Final Prediction:  Gono is a healthy favorite at -355.  However, I think he may be a little overvalued in this fight.  Dan isn’t pretty to watch, but he does have the potential to pull the upset on a longtime veteran that might be losing his step.  Therefore, take Hornbuckle at +350 risking .3 units to win 1.05 units.

Matt Jaggers (+300, BetUS) vs Jung Chan Sung (-315, BetCRIS) 

Matt Jaggers was a regular staple at KOTC and made a pretty big jump in competition when he came to Sengoku.  He is a very reserved fighter that does a great job conserving his energy and then exploding into activity when he feels his positioning is right.  His standup his good and his GnP even better.  The only hole in his game would be on the ground.  67% of his losses have been by submission, and he was completely destroyed by Marlon Sandro at Sengoku 7 with a standing arm-triangle. 

Jung Chan Sung is a Korean fighter that has been in the game for about 2 years.  He won a kickboxing reality TV show in Korea and has transitioned over to MMA.  He won a Korean Sambo tournament in 2007, the lightweight tournament in Pancrase, and the 8-man KOREA-FC tournament in 2008.  He initially had good success in Sengoku, eliminating Shintaro Ishiwatari at the end of the first round.  However, he was then defeated by Masanori Kanehara at Sengoku 8.  The whole affair was a pretty exciting back and forth battle that saw some good striking and great submission attempts.  Jung is currently 6-1. 

For only having 7 fights, Jung is very well rounded.  He is extremely quick with powerful knees and sudden submission attempts.  He did have Kanehara in danger several times with both armbars and triangle chokes.  Standing up, he delivered a good bit of punishment, but was unable to stop Kanehara’s takedowns, which ultimately won him the decision. 

I would have to lean in Jung’s direction for this fight.  He doesn’t have a huge amount of experience, but he is very well rounded and his speed would cause problems for anyone.  He also has a very aggressive standup style that focuses on forward rushing flurries of haymakers.  It isn’t the prettiest thing to watch, but it can be very effective and should be so against Jagger, who is very reserved with a tall standup style.  In addition, Jung has a very good chance of pulling off a submission if this fight goes to the ground. 

Final Prediction: At -315, Jung is a little overvalued in this fight.  There would be some value if he was below -250, but he is just too high at this point.  On the opposite end, Jaggers isn’t really worth the underdog bet at +300.  So, no action on this fight.

Michihiro Omigawa (+195, Bodog) vs Marlon Sandro (-205, Sportsbook) 

Michihiro Omigawa has been on an absolute tear in this featherweight tournament.  He was a huge underdog against L.C. Davis and a slight underdog against Nam Phan, but he was able to pull off the upset both times.  He is only 6-7 with 50% of wins by TKO.  He has fought in Deep and the UFC with notable losses to Matt Wiman, Thiago Tavares, Chan Sung Jung, and JZ Calvancanti. 

Omigawa has a strong Judo background, and that can be seen in his pure domination of Nam Phan with great throws throughout the first round.  His standup has improved by leaps and bounds, with great head movement and punches in bunches.  He also has seen a good strength increase from dropping down to 145lbs.  Omigawa has never looked better in his carrer. 

Marlon Sandro has been on his own tear, with an undefeated record of 14-0.   His first 9 wins came from smaller shows in Brazil and 3 wins in Pancrase before his move to Sengoku.  Since coming into the tournament, he cut through Matt Jaggers with a powerful standing arm-triangle and then a 19 second KO of knockout artist Nick Denis. 

His KO of Denis really showed Marlon’s dangerous standup skills.  He was primarily known as more of a BJJ fighter that took top control and got the decision, but his striking with Denis looked fast, powerful, and perfectly placed.  There was nothing sloppy or lucky about it.  On the ground, Marlon is a pitbull with 3 submission victories, the most noticeable one being the victory over Jaggers.  This kid looks strong, very well-rounded, and just plain dangerous. 

Final Prediction:  I have a feeling that Marlon will be putting an end to Omigawa’s current hot streak.  He will have the edge on the feet and most likely on the ground as well.  Therefore, take Marlon Sandro at -205 risking 2.05 units to win 1 unit.

Hatsu Hioki (-575, BetCRIS) vs Masanori Kanehara (+550, BetUS) 

Masanori Kanehara is a real darkhorse in this featherweight tournament.  So far, he has been able to pull out decision victories over Jong Man Kim and Chan Sung Jung.  He originally had some problems in the beginning of his career going 0-2-3 in his first 5 fights.  Most of his fights too place in ZST and he has since moved on to Sengoku.  He is currently 12-5-5. 

Kanehara is very light on his feet and puts together good combinations.  His biggest strength is his wrestling, which he used to dominate Jung.  This most likely comes from his work with ATT, who have a lot of high level wrestlers.  On the ground, he is very intelligent, and was able to nullify all of the submission attempts Jung threw his way.  He does have KO power, but has also been KOed twice himself.  All in all, he is a very intelligent, well-rounded fighter. 

Hatsu Hioki is another submission ace in this tournament.  He made his name in Shooto and holds a notable wins over Jeff Curran.  So far in the tournament, he has eliminated Ronnie Mann and Chris Manuel.  He is 19-3-2 and is the favorite to win the whole tournament. 

It is no secret that Hioki wants to take this fight to the ground.  He has great transitions and is just a monster when it comes to BJJ.  Over 50% of his wins have come by submission.  Standing up, he is quick but not very powerful.  He does have good takedowns, with quick shots from the outside. 

Hioki came in as the heavy favorite in this fight.  His victories in the tournament thus far have been much more decisive and impressive.  Plus, if this fight gets to the ground, he has a massive advantage and can get the submission victory.  However, there is a good possibility that Kanehara will be able to use his wrestling to keep this fight standing and eke out the decision on his feet. Plus, if Hioki tries to stand with Kanehara, he will lose, and he has done that in the past to prove he can strike.  It didn’t work out for him then and it won’t work out for him now. 

Final Prediction:  Kanehara at +550 is a great value.  I think a lot of people are overlooking this guy.  So take Masanori Kanehara at +550 risking 1 unit to win 5.5 units.