By Delphi

Dan Henderson (-200, Sportsbook) vs Michael Bisping (+190, 5Dimes)

This grudge match is the culmination of the last season of the ultimate fighter as these two coaches step into the cage to settle some issues that arose during the season. Whoever wins this match will get a chance at Anderson Silva for the middleweight title.

First off, Dan Henderson has had a very successful MMA career thus far.  He dominated over in Pride and was the only man to hold belts in two different weight classes at the same time.  He got a highlight reel KO of Wanderlei Silva for the middleweight (205lb) belt and his record reads like a who’s-who list of MMA greats that include Vitor Belfort, Murilo Bustamanter, Akihiro Gono, Ryo Chonan, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.  He originally had a hard time when he returned to the UFC with losses to Anderson Silva and Rampage Jackson.  However, he went all 5 rounds and completely exhausted Jackson.  He was also winning the fight with Anderson Silva until he got caught in a triangle choke.  Recently, he beat the submission ace Rousimar Palhares and got a close split decision victory over Rich Franklin, only the third man to do so.

Dan has a very strong wrestling background with medals earned at the California State Wrestling Championships in high school. He wrestled at Arizona State in college and went to the NCAA championships.  His biggest accolade was the fact the he went to the 1992 and 1996 Olympics as an alternate in Greco-Roman wrestling for the US.  Therefore, if he wants to take an opponent down, he will do so.

It wasn’t till a little bit later in his MMA career that he learned that he had some very devastating hands, which he used to put out Wanderlei Silva.  That being said, Henderson is mainly a wrestling grinder who dominates his opponents with takedowns and earns the decision.  He has a rock solid chin and has never been knocked out in his career.  Heavy handed strikers like Rampage Jackson, Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin, and Wanderlei Silva could not put him away.  He has shown a slight weakness in the past to submissions by losing via armbar to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira twice and via a triangle to Anderson Silva.  However, those two guys are extremely dangerous BJJ artisits, and Bisping doesn’t even come close to them.  Dan’s other losses have come via decision, some of them very close.

Michael Bisping is a phenomenal fighter out of the UK that won Season 3 of the Ultimate Fighter as a light heavyweight.  He then went on a great run at 205lb completely destroying Eric Shafer and Elvis Sinosic.  He then won a controversial split decision over Matt Hamill that many thought Hamill had won.  He lost to Rashad Evans in another close split decision after that.  It was that loss that motivated Bisping to drop to 185lbs.  Since then, he has looked great with TKO wins over Charles McCarthy and Jason Day.  He also won a dominating decision over Chris Leben where he was able to out box the heavy handed and strong chinned brawler.

Bisping has very good standup skills and comes from a kickboxing background.  He doesn’t have the devastating knockout power of some strikers, but he is very technical with good footwork and movement.  He also looks very fast at middleweight and should be able to outstrike Henderson on the feet if he can avoid Dan’s big left hand.  I don’t think he can KO Henderson, since better strikers have tried and failed, but he could out point Dan like he did Leben.  It should also be a big confidence booster for Bisping to have Rampage Jackson, who has already defeated Henderson in a hard fought championship bout, to train with at the Wolfslair.

From a wrestling stand point, Henderson has a huge edge and shouldn’t have a problem taking Bisping down.  Bisping’s main focus will most likely be getting back up to his feet like he was able to do in the Rashad Evans fight.  However, if he is only able to get back up and isn’t offensive, it will end like the Evans fight.  He does have the chance of getting a sweep on Dan and getting in top position to unleash his own ground and pound, but with Henderson’s history in Greco-Roman wrestling, that may prove very difficult.

This fight should go Henderson’s way.  He will most likely dominate Bisping in the clinch, take him down, and grind out a three round decision.  Hopefully he doesn’t try to stand with Bisping and try to land a big left hand.  That could lead to him being out pointed on the feet.  Ultimately, I think Henderson has the tools to take this fight.  This is a huge step up in competition for Bisping that I don’t think he is ready for.

Final Prediction: Dan Henderson at -200 risking 1.5 units to win .75 units