By Delphi

Summary:
Gilbert Yvel over Pedro Rizzo at -110 risking 1 unit to win .9 units.
Javier Vazquez over Din Thomas at +235 risking 1 unit to win 2.35 units.
William Sriyapai over Chris Horodecki at +500 risking .5 units to win 2.5 units.
Randy Hedderick over Tom Atencio at +135 risking .50 units to win .675 units.

Bobby Lashley (-550, BetCRIS) vs. Bob Sapp (+450, Sportsbook)

Bobby Lashley is a former professional wrestling star with three professional MMA fights under his belt. He has a very strong wrestling background with two Armed Forces championships and two NAIA wrestling championships. So his major strength coming into this fight is his wrestling pedigree. His major weakness would be his experience. However, he did gain some very good cage-time when he went the distance with Jason Guida. In this fight, his wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Bob Sapp is a staple of the Japanese fight scene with numerous fights in Pride and K-1. He employs a bull-rush striking style that saw him win several fights early in his career. However, he has a non-existent ground game and proven to be very susceptible to attacks to the legs. He is a very one-dimensional striker who was only kept around the Japanese promotions for his popularity in the country, not his fighting prowess. His strange circling defense is a good example. He may be large at 350 lbs, but that really doesn’t mean much to someone like Lashley who will come in around 260 lbs and has the speed to neutralize the size difference. Sapp most recently lost to a very small 205 lb Ikuhisa Minowa on May 26th in the first round and is a good case-in-point. In fact, Sapp has always had a problem with the smaller, faster guys, so this shouldn’t be any different.

This is a real no-brainer. Lashley is going to take Sapp down pretty easily and either get the stoppage or ride out a unanimous decision. Sapp’s only chance is to catch Lashley in the very beginning of the fight with his signature rush and hope for a knockout. As such, the line on this one is pretty accurate. Prepare for a replay of Velasquez/Kongo or Lesnar/Herring.
Final Prediction: Lashley via TKO, but staying away due to the high lines.

Gilbert Yvel (-110, 5Dimes) vs. Pedro Rizzo (+110, Bodog)

This should be a dynamite kick-boxing match as both of these guys come from very strong Muay Thai backgrounds and are known for their standup abilities. So be prepared for a war.
Pedro Rizzo is a four-time Brazilian Muay Thai champion that was trained extensively by Marco Ruas. He had a mediocre run in the UFC that saw him go 9-5 from 1998 to 2003. He then went to Pride to drop back to back fights. Since then he has gone 2-1 with wins over Jeff Monson and Justin Eilers and he had a recent KO loss to Josh Barnett. He is mainly a counter-puncher and tends not to press the attack.
Gilbert Yvel is a Dutch Muay Thai expert that fights out of the Vos Gym with the likes of Ernesto Hoost and Antoni Hardonk. So, he will be well prepared for a standup war with Rizzo. The main weaknesses in his game has been his takedown defense and ground skills. Josh Barnett was able to take him down and GnP him with ease for 2+ rounds. That being said, he has always done well against fellow strikers like Cheick Kongo. So there is little to fear from Rizzo stylistically speaking.
Final Prediction: At pick-em odds, I would have to lean toward Yvel. He has just a little better striking then Rizzo and will not be worrying about the takedown. So, he will let the leather fly. His main weakness has been ground fighters, and that won’t be an issue in this fight. I would take him up to about -140, but at -110, I’d risk 1 unit to win .9 units.
Din Thomas (-265, Sportsbook) vs. Javier Vazquez (+235, BetCRIS)

Din Thomas was a familiar face in the UFC with quality losses to BJ Penn and Caol Uno in his early days. His most recent run in the UFC saw him gain a good 3 fight streak with wins over Rich Clementi, Clay Guida, and Jeremy Stephens. He then dropped back to back fights to Kenny Florian and Josh Neer. Since his cut from the UFC, he has gone 2-0 so far this year. He trains out of American Top Team with a heavy roster of top-notch fighters.
Thomas’s main forte is his jujitsu. Over half of his wins have come via submission and he has very slick transitions on the ground. His main weakness over his long career has been fellow submission specialists. The above mentioned Florian and Uno are good examples.
Javier Vazquez is a heavily decorated jujitsu specialist that teaches at the Millenia Jiu-Jitsu camp. The majority of his wins have also come via submission. In addition to his ground game he has very strong wrestling and has been able to dump a number of guys on their heads with relative ease. That makes for a potent combination. He can dictate the location of the fight and can finish it when he takes it to the ground. After his first 12 fights from 1998 to the end of 2003, he took a little over 3 years off and came back in 2007 to score two victories. He hasn’t fought since and has thus been out of the cage for about 18 months. So there is now the question of ring rust for Javier, but that didn’t affect him 2007.

Din Thomas is a veteran of the sport with a very slick ground game, but I think people may be counting Javier out due to the lack of name recognition. He definitely has the ground skills to defeat Thomas and I would put the lines closer to -200 instead of -265. His wrestling is very good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vazquez take Thomas down and submit him. He has shown to be very good against other jujitsu practitioners, so I believe there is value in this line.

Final Prediction: Javier Vazquez at +235 risking 1 unit to win 2.35 units.
Chris Horodecki (-600, BetCRIS) vs. William Sriyapai (+500, Bodog)

William Sriyapai is a heavily decorated Muay Thai fighter that has fought the majority of his fights in the King of the Cage promotion. He is a 4x World Muay Thai Champion that is also an instructor with Javier Vasquez at the Millennia Camp. The great majority of his fights have ended via KO and he has proven to be a very dangerous striker.

Chris Horodecki is a young MMA fighter than came storming onto the scene in the IFL and went 11-0 until he was shut down by Ryan Schultz at the end of 2007. He is a very good striker but was put on the mat by Schultz and brutally TKOed in the first round. He currently trains out of Xtreme Couture, which is a well respected camp with a highly talented roster. He was suppose to fight Dan Lauzon at Affliction, but was unable to fight due to a bulging disc in his neck. For being only 21, this kid has had an amazing run with a very impressive record of 12-1.

These lines make me wonder if the odds makers know something that we the public don’t. Horodecki is a very talented young fighter out of an amazing camp, but Sriyapai is no slouch. He has an extensive Muay Thai background and has proven himself to be a very dangerous striker with numerous KO’s on his resume. Sriyapai strikes very hard with great kickboxing combinations that show a good mix of punches and high-kicks.

Final Prediction: At these odds, I’m willing to take a small bet on William Sriyapai risking .5 units at +500 to win 2.5 units. Horodecki is very impressive, but I would have to give William a better shot than 16.6% with his decorated Muay Thai background and KO ability.

Tom Atencio (-160, BetCRIS) vs. Randy Hedderick (+135, 5Dimes)

There is not much that can be said about this fight. Both fighters are very new with Atencio having one win and Hedderick making his pro debut. As I’m sure you know, Tom Atencio is the vice president of the clothing/MMA promoter Affliction and is 42 years old. So it is hard to imagine that he has had very much time to train for this bout. He did call out Dana White, but this whole thing has the feel of a publicity stunt. Hedderick on the other hand has stated that he has been training fulltime for the bout. So the reason for Atencio being the favorite is a complete mystery.

Final Predication: It is anyone’s guess with so little information. However with age and lack of training time against him, I would bet against Tom Atencio. Maybe a small .50 unit bet on Randy Hedderick at +135 to win .675…maybe.
Brett Cooper (-400, BetCRIS) vs. Waachiim Spiritwolf (+325, 5Dimes)

Brett Cooper has a 9-4 record with wins over Jason Von Flue and Rory Markham. He is currently on a 6 fight win-streak since a loss in April of 2007 to Toby Grear. Waachiim Spiritwolf is 5-4 with a very splotchy record. He has been unable to get a win streak going, and I see that continuing with this fight.
Final Prediction: The line is pretty accurate for this fight, and I see Brett Cooper taking this via TKO. However, I prefer to stay away from lines above -400, so I’d leave this one alone too.